The Gathering Storm

Understanding Our Dangerous New Political Reality

The zeitgeist isn’t just shifting - it’s fracturing. As I argued in my post, The Zeitgeist Is Changing, we’re not merely in a turbulent election cycle; we’re in a historical crisis that could forge or break America for generations. Strauss’ & Howe’s The Fourth Turning¹ frames this as a crisis phase, a roughly 20-year period where societies face existential threats. In America’s history this has been the American Revolution, the Civil War, WWII, and now. Each time, the nation teetered on the edge of collapse or transformation.

Colin Woodard’s American Nations² deepens this perspective, showing America as a patchwork of 11³ rival regional cultures - Yankeedom’s moralism, the Deep South’s hierarchy, the Midlands’ pragmatism - each pulling the country in conflicting directions. These frameworks don’t predict the future with certainty, but they reveal why voters are so polarized and what they’re likely to demand next: security, clarity, and a sense of control in a world that feels unmoored.

We’re in the warfare stage of this cycle, and it’s not just rhetorical. Strauss and Howe describe crisis phases as times of “total war,” where societies mobilize to survive. Today, we’re already in a low-level insurgency. January 6, 2021, wasn’t a protest gone wrong; it was an armed occupation of the Capitol,⁴ fueled by a belief that democracy itself, when it elects the wrong person, is the enemy.

Militias are training in rural counties, political violence is spiking, and both sides are quick to demonize the other as existential threats. The FBI’s 2024 domestic terrorism reports note a surge in threats against elected officials, judges, and even election workers. This isn’t hypothetical - it’s here. And it could escalate.

An internal shooting war isn’t far-fetched, nor is a global conflict with China over Taiwan or Russia over NATO’s eastern flank. The 1930s felt like this too, before the storm broke.

The central question is: Who wins this war for America’s soul? Has Trump’s MAGA movement already clinched victory, paving the way for an oligarchic, autocratic future that could dominate for 80–100 years, as Strauss and Howe’s cycles suggest?

Their rhetoric of “America First” and distrust of institutions resonates with millions who feel left behind by globalization and cultural shifts. Billionaires like Elon Musk and Peter Thiel back this vision, amplifying it through platforms like X.

Or is MAGA’s 2024 electoral success just a battle won, with the broader war undecided? History offers no comfort. The Revolution hinged on French intervention and a few key victories. The Civil War could’ve ended with a Confederate stalemate. In WWII, Japan and Germany might’ve avoided provoking the U.S., leaving us isolated as they carved up the world. Each time, the “better” outcome was a coin toss.

Democrats must understand this: there’s no guarantee we emerge from this crisis with a stronger democracy. Voters are angry, not just at Democrats & Republicans⁵ but at a system they see as rigged - by elites, corporations, and yes, sometimes by progressive ideals that feel disconnected from their daily struggles.

Woodard’s regional lens shows why: the Tidewater and Deep South crave order, while the Midlands and Greater Appalachia demand fairness and self-reliance. Democrats can’t win by preaching unity; we need to speak to these divides, offering solutions that feel visceral and immediate.

Complacency is not an option. Democrats, in particular, must recognize the gravity of this moment. We cannot operate under the assumption that the arc of history will automatically bend towards justice. Understanding the depth of the crisis we are in, acknowledging the very real possibility of a drastically negative future, is the necessary first step towards mobilizing and fighting for a better one.

And central to this understanding - the dominant party in a crisis is either a new party or a party that has changed so much it would be unrecognizable to someone from before the crisis. This is a lot more than better messaging and some policy changes.⁶

The old rules of political engagement no longer apply. We are in a battle for the soul of the nation, and the stakes could not be higher. If we don’t, the autocrats & oligarchs might not just win a battle - they’ll write the next century.⁷

Part 1 of 6 next>

1. Anyone trying to determine what the Democratic party should do who does not read this book is destined to fail. They’re trying to address issues in the context of the unraveling turning when they need to do so in the context of the crisis turning.

2. Anyone trying to determine how to speak to the country who does not read this is also destined to fail. While the voters in a region have a multitude of individual cultural beliefs, as a bloc the cultural differences matter - a lot.

3. 13 if you add South Florida and Hawaii. But the impact of those two is miniscule.

4. Compared to the 3 previous crisis turnings, if January 6 is the worst this one gets, we are very lucky.

5. The good news, I think, is that voters have not bought into the MAGA worldview, they just dislike it less than the Democratic Party worldview. They’re still looking for sometthing to embrace.

6. Strauss–Howe generational theory

7. In the Revolutionary War we went from colonists in a Monarchy to voters in a Democracy. In the Civil War we went from a rural country with slavery to an industrial power with freedom for all (some more than others). In WWII we went from an isolationist country with a hands-off government to the world’s superpower with a social safety net. The next 5 - 15 years will decide what our next change of this degree will be.