The Zeitgeist is Changing

We Democrats are being left behind

We keep telling ourselves that if we just win back the presidency and maybe the Senate, we can reset the clock. Go back to 2020. Restore competent governance. Get back to normal.

That’s the fantasy. The reality? The old Democratic playbook is dead. And pretending otherwise is political malpractice.

Yes, we can probably win in ’26 and even ’28 by being Not Trump. But after that? If all we’re offering is Obama-era paternalism with better execution¹ — we’re cooked. The voters are done waiting.

The Good News (Sort Of)

The good news is the Republicans are also flailing. Trump blew up their playbook, and in its place they’ve jury-rigged a mess of culture war grievances, authoritarian vibes, and performative chaos.

The better news? Most of that isn’t what most Americans actually want.

But here’s the catch: people still respond to Trump. Not because of the racism or the cruelty (though some absolutely do). But because, for a lot of Americans, Trump is the only guy in the room who looks like he’s doing something. Constantly. Recklessly. Desperately. And that alone counts for something in a political system that feels stuck in neutral.

I know this is a hard thing to accept. Most Democratic activists are focused on fighting very liberal vs. moderate, build vs. vetocracy, abundance vs. down wing. Everyone has their list of how we should adjust.² These arguments are rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic.

Why Donald Trump

There are two big, under-discussed reasons people vote for Trump. The first: he acts. That’s it. He wakes up and makes something happen — oftentimes something insane, but something. That matters to people who feel like nothing in their lives ever changes, no matter who’s in charge.

The second: they know exactly what Democrats offer—and they don’t want it. It’s not ignorance. It’s rejection. And here’s the twist: a lot of them will split their tickets. They’ll vote for a Democrat in Congress but turn around and pick Trump for president. Why? Because they like their Congressional candidate’s ideas but not what our Presidential Candidate and national party represent.

That should scare us more than it does.

History

This kind of shift doesn’t happen often. It’s happened three times³ in American history:

• 1776 through Jefferson.

• The Civil War through the Gilded Age.

• The New Deal through post WWII.

And now we’re in the fourth.

Our fundamental political culture from FDR to Obama has evolved in places, but at the core, has been consistent. Ronald Reagan is philosophically closer to FDR than Trump. That model—technocratic, interest-group balancing, competent liberalism — worked for a long time. But the cultural and economic ground has shifted beneath our feet. Trump isn’t just a fluke. He’s a rupture. The first truly post-FDR/Reagan president.

And he’s already been elected. Twice.

Meanwhile, people are moving from blue states to red states. Congressional reapportionment after the 2030 Census is going to bake that into the electoral map. The Senate’s already stacked against us. The presidency might be next.⁴

This is the warning light on the dashboard. And we’re still arguing about whether we should go faster or slower—without noticing the road’s washed out ahead.

We Need to Figure out the Future

I’m not arrogant enough to think I know where the zeitgeist will end up.⁵ Nor will it end up in the same place for everyone.⁶ As the saying goes, we need to figure out where the people are going, get in front of that crowd, and lead it.

First: drop the idea that a smarter version of the past will save us.

Second: start listening. Not to donors. Not to interest groups. Not to Twitter. To people. Especially the ones who flip back and forth, and the ones who used to be Democrats. They’re telling us what they want. And if it doesn’t match your cherished worldview? That’s the point.

This doesn’t mean abandoning values. It means rethinking how we lead. Americans are overwhelmed, economically insecure, culturally disoriented, and politically cynical. And they’re not wrong to feel that way. They want someone — anyone — to start making the system work for them again.

They want speed. They want action. They want courage. We can give it to them. But not if we keep governing like it’s 2012.

The American people, by and large, are good. But they’re being buffeted by a system that doesn’t care about them and they have no control over it. They see changes coming much faster than they can handle them. They’re legitimately scared of all this. They legitimately see that they’re getting fucked over. And they want someone who will try to change this.

Politics is National Now

Forget the moderate vs. progressive war. That’s inside baseball. The real divide is builders vs. managers. Visionaries vs. caretakers.

We’ve had decades of competent caretaking. And we still got Trump.

If we want to win—not just electorally, but culturally⁷ — we need to become the party that acts. That builds. That moves fast. That isn’t afraid to say what we believe, even if it makes some consultant squirm.

The future belongs to the party that speaks to this moment with clarity, urgency, and purpose. If it’s not us, it’ll be someone else.⁸

1. i.e. actually build the things that are approved & funded.

2. Even I had one.

3. There are arguably additional shifts.

4. We Democrats are in a Bad Place Electorally

5. I do have some thoughts

6. American Nations: A History of the Eleven Rival Regional Cultures of North America

7. I’m using “culturally” very broadly here. People have economic, cultural identity, resentment of “others”, anti-establishment, etc. views — all of that impacts this.

8. I’m not a fan of Gavin Newsom but he appears to be trying to find a paradigm for what people want. So best wishes to him in his effort.