3 Comments

Sounds about right to me.

I'd add the following:

1) CATL will start shipping "condensed" batteries with energy densities of 500 wh/kg. This is double the energy density of Tesla 4680 cells.

2) People will slowly start to realize that starship changes everything they thought they knew about space travel - with Starship, anything is possible in the solar system. New Glenn will finally launch. It will prove a failure.

3) Worldwide universal access texting will become available, for $1 /mo.

4) Quantum computing will finally accomplish something useful.

5) COPC 30 will come and go, and nothing will be decided.

6) Ukraine will "win" the war with Russia. This will be a negotiated settlement wherein Russia keeps some, but not all of what it has gained. There will be serious doubts whether Russia can remain viable going forward.

7) More and more countries will hit "the wall" with renewable energy - more gets added, costs will go higher, yet carbon dioxide emissions remain relatively static. This will baffle various energy "experts" who never knew what the hell they were talking about.

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I agree with you except #4. I think Quantum computing is going to be like fusion for awhile - we'll have something great "real soon now".

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Yeah, I was least certain about that one.

How about we replace it with this: Numerous "breakthroughs" will be announced in fusion energy, and a functioning reactor will still be 30 years away.

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