My Predictions for Next Year
CRISPR, AI, SpaceX, & Electricity
CRISPR, mRNA, etc. will quietly create a lot more treatments for numerous issues. This means everything for the lives they save while the rest of us will pay no attention.
AI will be incorporated into a ton of purpose built applications. We will directly use ChatGPT less and numerous apps calling ChatGPT more.
GLP-1s will become widespread, for those that can afford it. We’ll see a decrease in obesity and a matching increase in productivity.
SpaceX’s drastic reduction in the cost of launching items into space will lead to a lot of trial/pilot activities in space. We won’t see any specific large scale space manufacturing, but it will figure out what make sense.
Trump & musk will have a falling out. Musk will learn that all his billions means nothing compared to the influence and power of the Presidency.
Electricity needs will grow a lot faster than projected, leading to a crisis in available power. This will be mostly addressed by bringing a lot more CCGTs online. Big Tech will make sure they have the power they need.
Renewables will lose all federal subsidies. This will lead to a halt in new wind projects (as they make no sense without the subsidies) and a significant reduction in new solar.
Fusion will hit no significant milestones. SMRs will make progress but will not ship. Several large fission plants will start the permitting process.
NEPA and grid reliability will be discussed a lot more. But nothing will be improved this year. The fixes will come in 2026.
Sounds about right to me.
I'd add the following:
1) CATL will start shipping "condensed" batteries with energy densities of 500 wh/kg. This is double the energy density of Tesla 4680 cells.
2) People will slowly start to realize that starship changes everything they thought they knew about space travel - with Starship, anything is possible in the solar system. New Glenn will finally launch. It will prove a failure.
3) Worldwide universal access texting will become available, for $1 /mo.
4) Quantum computing will finally accomplish something useful.
5) COPC 30 will come and go, and nothing will be decided.
6) Ukraine will "win" the war with Russia. This will be a negotiated settlement wherein Russia keeps some, but not all of what it has gained. There will be serious doubts whether Russia can remain viable going forward.
7) More and more countries will hit "the wall" with renewable energy - more gets added, costs will go higher, yet carbon dioxide emissions remain relatively static. This will baffle various energy "experts" who never knew what the hell they were talking about.