Wind Energy is a Carbon Emitter (indirectly)

To address climate change we need to reduce CO2 emissions, not increase them

I’m quite liberal. I believe global warming is an existential crisis for the human race. I believe we need to get to the point where 90% or more of our electrical generation is from renewable sources. And up until a week ago, I strongly supported Wind.

I also believe that Physics must drive our decisions, not wishful thinking.

I wrote a blog the other day that lays this out. No one found a problem with my calculations. Several people in the comments provided studies that support my finding.

TL:DR; When the wind is not blowing the power companies need a backup. The best backup is a SCGT (single cycle gas turbine). If you don’t have wind at all, then the best 24/7 power is a CCGT (combined cycle gas turbine).

The SCGT emits 64% more CO2 as the CCGT. So quick comparison is if the wind generator is running less than 40% of the time, the backup generator emits more CO2¹. Wind turbines are normally running 33% - 38% of the time.

Add to that the following issues with wind:

1. Installing Wind + gas is more than twice the cost of a CCGT. For a 900MW power source Wind+CCGT is ~2B while a CCGT is ~800M.

2. The SCGT is 35% efficient tops, usually less. The CCGT is 60% efficient. So if the backup SCGT is running 55% of the time or more (very common), it’s also using more gas and that means additional expense.

3. We need to build transmission lines from the wind turbines to the grid. Large HVDC/HVAC lines on tall towers cutting a swatch through the trees.

4. There have been numerous studies showing negative environmental impacts of the wind turbines. They especially impact bats, whales², and humans.

5. Some people find them ugly. (I thought they looked cool when I drove through Iowa. Then again, I don’t live there.)

6. When the wind turbines hit end of life (7 - 10 years), there’s no way at present to recycle them.

We have spent tens, and possibly hundreds of billions of dollars on wind generation. And the end result of it is - more CO2 emissions. Wind energy is contributing to global warming while increasing our utility bills and taking tax money, through grants and tax credits.

This is insane.

And where have all of our environmental groups been on this? Supporting a technology that harms the environment. Where have all of our policy makers been on this? Telling us wind energy is ½³ the solution to stopping global warming. Where have all our political leaders been on this? Gaining renewable bona-fides by supporting wind energy.

And this is not new information. I was not the first to find this (see links below). The emperor’s has no new clothes - he’s naked. And we’re paying for it.⁴

I think Muskaswamy are twerps. But this is an easy item for their DOGE efforts. They should immediately end every type of support for wind energy. And every state should do the same. No need to regulate against it, without all the credits and payments wind makes no financial sense. And if it can stand on its own financially in some uses - great.

And every one of us should be asking our political leaders - why are they helping wind energy when it makes electricity more expensive, adds to the CO2 warming the planet, and reduces the urgency to find a workable solution⁵.

Citations (major h/t to

Jeff Walther

)

• At 60% efficiency, the CCGT can produce CO2 emissions of up to 330 kgCO2/MWh

  • Note: I have queries in to GE Power and Siemens Electric asking for their numbers for their turbines. (They are not on their spec sheets.)

• SCGT generates 486 - 541kgCO2/MWh

• The average capacity factor [for wind turbines] in 2023 was 33.5% on a fleet-wide basis and 38.2% among wind plants built in 2022.

• Germany Gets Dunkelf**ked Again, Norway To Dismantle Power Cables To Europe

  • This is a great substack! He’s also written several books on power.

• The comments - several by people in the industry

• Wind and Solar up to 12 TIMES More Expensive Than Natural Gas in New England

• CO2 Emissions Variations in CCGTs Used to Balance Wind in Ireland

• Cost and Quantity of Greenhouse Gas Emissions Avoided by Wind Generation

• Does wind power reduce carbon emissions?

• Why solar and wind won’t make much difference to carbon dioxide emissions

• Wind Integration: Incremental Emissions from Back-Up Generation Cycling (Part V: Calculator Update)

• Wind energy with Coal backup in Colorado

• The long term solution is fusion (added because I like how it’s shown)

• Citations that disagree with my conclusions

  • Lazard LCOE (I think they play games with the backup energy source)

  • System LCOE: What are the costs of variable renewables? (I think this uses backup models that aren’t realistic.)

Field of wind generators spewing exhaust

1. It’s actually worse because a CCGT emits more CO2 than a SCGT to produce the same amount of electricity.

2. The issue with whales is arguable. And I really hope it does not hurt whales because it would really bother me if Donald Trump is right about something.

3. The other half being solar. My view is any “environmental” group that does not support fission is in fantasyland.

4. Should all policymakers and politicians be well versed on this subject? Absolutely not. But they should have people advising them that are.

5. Nuclear power.