The Big Question on Nuclear Facing Colorado
What will it cost, how long will it take?
First off, waiting on SMRs makes no sense.1 They will be more expensive per MW produced and we’ll be waiting 7+ years to start building one. So if we’re going nuclear it’s the APR-1400, AP1000, or the French design.
I asked on r/nuclear How Much to Build an APR-1400 Today? Think of the people on reddit as an open source peer review. Or the wisdom of crowds. A lot of the people answering there really know their stuff.
The answer was, discounting the outliers, $5B - $15B. And 5 - 12 years. This is a gigantic range and it’s a reasonable estimate. Predicting the cost of something like this is fundamentally a crap shoot.
So do we build nuclear in Colorado? While I think wind makes no sense and primarily solar will require an inordinate amount of batteries with gas backup, I also think paying $15B and waiting 12 years is also a bad approach.
Our country used to be able to build amazing things and do so quickly. The Empire State Building, Boulder Dam, the Pentagon - all built under budget and delivered before the predicted time.
I believe we are still capable of this. There are recent examples of this such as Heathrow’s Terminal 5 which was delivered under budget and a week early.2 On a smaller scale, at Windward Studios we consistently delivered on time.3
I believe we can do this. With that said, the first step is take our time and plan it out in detail. Which includes detailed bids from Westinghouse and KHNP. And in those bids ensure that they are going to build it right and everything is thought through.
Then, and only then, we look at a timetable and cost projection from that effort that can be met. And decide if that price/time is worth it. And no matter what, we don’t say reduce everything by 10% somehow and go - nope. We decide based on a planned out detailed estimate as we know we won’t beat that estimate.
So that’s the next step. Not go/no go on nuclear. It’s get a detailed thought through estimate. Then we decide go/no go. And to those that want to just say go for nuclear - how do we float bonds that are “$5B - $15B depending…”?
Suggested reading:
The budget was fixed cost.
Your lead: The Big Question on Nuclear Facing Colorado: What will it cost, how long will it take?
I've got a question that needs to be answered first: who makes the decisions on what power production should look like? Are you trying to convince one or more utility companies? People in state government? A wealth billionaire not currently involved in producing electricity?
And others, closely related: Who takes the risks (financial AND safety)? Who pays (and when)? And who benefits from the payments?
There is an opportunity with SMRs. Terrapower is already broken ground on a SMR in Kemmerer Wyoming. Crazy thought - build four more, at the same location. That is 1.4 GW more energy. It would cost <$12 billion (likely $6 billion). Each plant would be identical to the one currently under construction.
Why?
From a regulatory perspective, once one plant has had its design approved, what's the difference between having two plants? Or five? Permits should be a snap. There are no NIMBY issues - that has already been resolved, right? It also makes management of the plants simple, since the same employees can work at any plant. Lots of your O&M costs would decrease - for example you could have common security with all plants. You'd also learn by doing - the first plant makes all the mistakes, but the same workforce, now wiser, means the subsequent builds will proceed smoothly. And Kemmerer isn't that far from Colorado. Transmission could be managed and wouldn't be that costly. You'd be upgrading existing lines. AND this is fully flexible output since energy storage is integrated into the system, meaning you can fully manage wind and solar inputs. Thes plants are fully load following.