Election Winners & Losers

My take on who won & lost in the election.

Winners

1. Democracy. Every candidate embracing the big lie who ran in a purple state lost. Every fucking one. An additional indicator is every Secretary of State candidate embracing the big lie in a purple state lost by a greater margin than the Gubernatorial candidate.
   With that said it was not a giant repudiation of the big lie. It was often a case of normally the Republican would win by 2 - 4 points and instead lost by 2 - 4. So there were still 42% - 48% of the voters who were fine with the big lie. But the majority clearly likes having a Democracy. Really really likes it!

2. Our Judiciary. If we had lost the Senate McConnell would have slow walked judicial appointments and only allowed appointments that were conservative. The judiciary would have been understaffed and staffed up with conservative friendly judges. Now Biden can continue to bring balance to all the MAGA curious judges appointed under Trump.

3. Ron DeSantis. If not for Trump DeSantis would now be the front runner for the Republican nomination for president. Even with Trump in the race, he’s in good shape. And he can now spend the next 2 years as governor of Florida passing laws and writing executive actions that thrill the Republican base.

4. Democratic Party. What was expected to be a really bad election for us Democrats turned out to be not bad. Kept the Senate, gained governorships and state legislatures, minimal losses in the House. For a mid-term election, especially with high inflation, a good result.

5. Gretchen Whitmer & Jared Polis. There were a number of big wins by various gubernatorial and senate candidates. But these two were easily the best winning by strong margins in purple states where they carried a lot of other Democratic candidates in their state to a win.
   If Biden decides to not run for reelection, these two go to the top of the list for the Democratic primary for President.

6. Joe Biden. He was looking at a hellacious next 2 years where his ability to appoint people would be severely constrained and his battles would all be defensive, working to retain what he had accomplished so far. In addition, with a Republican House, he now has someone to blame for problems they can’t address when he runs for re-election.

7. Tim Ryan. Ryan did significantly better than expected. Granted Vance was an imperfect candidate, but not that flawed. In this race he showed what can be effective working to gain the vote of the blue collar white working class. A group that used to be one of the two bedrocks of the Democratic party. And he helped a couple of Democrats in House races win.
   The Democratic party has a valuable asset in Ryan. If they truly listen to him and follow his advice. If…

Losers

1. Donald Trump. Every candidate he endorsed in a purple election lost. Every fucking one. And most of these candidates were clearly poor quality candidates. Horrible quality in quite a few cases. He lost the Senate majority and kept the House majority in single digits.

2. Big Lie & MAGA candidates. As listed above, in competitive races, being a big lie or MAGA crazy candidate was a losing proposition. Not just for those that stayed true to it to the end, but also those that backed away from it after the primary. It’s a great platform to win a primary, its great in a red district, but it’s not the road to a majority in the country.

3. Republican Party. The next 2 years are going to be a complete shitshow for the Republican party. The crazies in the House get their attention, their contributions, and their votes in 2 years by engaging in conflict. Not only will they refuse to compromise, they won’t even want to accept yes because where’s the attention in a quiet win.

4. Kevin McCarthy. McCarthy has already made it clear he has no backbone. But even if he did, this group is not controllable. Because he can’t give them what they want. Pelosi could control the far left because at the end of they day they wanted to pass legislation. The crazies on the Republican just want to burn it all down. He will go down as one of the weakest and most ineffectual Speakers in history.

5. Democratic Party. Everyone talks about candidate quality matters and that’s why Democrats kept the Senate. But no one is talking about weak Democratic candidates¹. There were enough of those that we lost the House majority. There are always weak candidates, the problem here is no one in the Democratic party is talking about it.
   In addition the Democratic party lost ground with most demographics. Yes the youth vote stepped up and got us over the line. Appreciate that. But if the democratic party is going to depend in ‘24 on weak Republican candidates, young voters, and Abortion & Democracy still being powerful motivators - we’re going to lose.

6. Joe Biden. When asked what he was going to do different after this election, he replied nothing. See the point above about the Democratic party - same issues here. If he has excuses for losses and weaknesses instead of changes to address them, then he’s taking the party, and his re-election, to a big defeat in ‘24.
   And yes, if his opponent is Trump, that alone might get him over the finish line. But if his opponent is anyone else, he’ll lose. And even with Trump, I’d prefer an easy win to might.

Special Notice

1. Ralph Warnock. Warnock is now running his 4th campaign for the Senate in 2 years. This guy is going to need the next 2 years just to rest & recover.

2. Brian Kemp, Mike DeWine, & Brad Raffensperger. All three showed that you can ignore Donald Trump and not submit to him - and win. There were others who did not submit to Trump and lost, such as Liz Cheney. But these 3 showed you can retain your integrity and win.

1. WI-Senate, NY-03, NY-04, NY-17, NY-19, OR-05