Colorado Clean by 2040 is Utter Fantasy
Bad Physics, assumption of miracles, and more
Ok, we have the release of Colorado Clean by 2040. I respect the competence of the Polis Administration and so this is incredibly disappointing to me. It has so many problems that it’s basically a fantasy novel. And if the state goes down this road we’re looking at roving blackouts and higher prices for electricity1.
Wind Energy
First off, Wind does not reduce CO2 emissions. Wind turbines run 35% of the time. The other 65% of the time you need backup. That backup is usually gas (discussing energy “gas” is natural gas). So we have two big problems here.
First, for a GW of generation, instead of spending ~800M, we’re spending ~2B. For the same CO2 emissions. Or worse, spend just ~1.2B (no backup) and have roving blackouts.
Second, the Colorado plan does not have backup gas generators. Which means when the wind dies down, which it will regularly do statewide, we’ve lost 30% - 50% of our required electricity. When we only have 70% (best case) of the needed power that’s roving blackouts where you get 2 hours of power, then one hour without, repeating on end until the wind picks back up.
Solar
Solar + 4 hour batteries (duck curve) work well today in Colorado. The hotter the summer day, the more power needed for everyone’s AC, and the more power generated by the solar panels. Less in the Spring/Fall and little in the Winter with days/weeks where it’s about 0 because of snow on the panels.
Colorado’s peak in the winter is 1.5 times the baseline and in the summer it’s 2.5 times the baseline. So while solar is intermittent, it’s at its best during the peak peak time. So great - today.
But if we go to heat pumps, electric vehicles, electric stoves, etc. then we’ll see the Winter peak meet or exceed the Summer peak. So as we become an all-electric everything state, we’ll need non intermittent generators some in the Spring/Fall and a lot in the Winter. That means gas plants or again roving blackouts with the longest blackouts occurring during winter storms.2
Green Hydrogen
My first year of Physics at C.U. 50 years ago (yes I’m old) one of my professors told us we’d see fusion energy in 20 years. And you know, he was right. They are still saying we’ll see fusion in 20 years. Green Hydrogen - same thing. It’s not happening soon, if ever.
Geothermal & SMRs
Both Geothermal and SMRs (Small Modular [nuclear] Reactors) show promise and could become available in the next 7 - 20 years. And they’ll probably be available at a price that works. But all those probable’s - do you want to make that bet when if you lose, higher prices and blackouts?
It absolutely makes sense to have contingency plans for if these become available at a workable price. But don’t pencil them in as a done deal.
Hydro, Demand Response, & Energy Efficiency
These are all good. My one comment is I think they’ll get less from demand response than they’re predicting because Americans don’t take well to being told when to do things. But hey, price it right and it could meet the goals.
Interstate Transmission Lines
First off, I think their plan to run a HVDC transmission line connecting the Western and Eastern grid is cool. Back in the 90s they tried connecting the two grids using HVAC and they could never successfully get them in sync. But with DC that problem goes away3.
And connecting the 3 zones in Colorado - very good idea. This improves reliability not just for the Wind/Sun not cooperating in just one zone, but also blown transformers, generators taken offline, etc. My only worry on this is it generally takes 7 years to get approvals, permitting, etc. so these may take longer than estimated4.
Importing Energy
The plan assumes we will import up to 1.5GW5 during peak demand. But the estimate is 14GW total electricity usage. If we are at 50% Wind with no gas backup, then we’ll need to import 7GW, not 1.5GW.
And the big problem with this is the wind can die down across the entire region. So all these states are fighting over limited reserves. If the neighboring states were equally stupid installing Wind with no gas backup, electricity prices will skyrocket.
The secondary issue with importing energy is it often is not “green.” Now granted, if it’s roving blackouts or get electricity from coal plants, people will take coal. But it’s bullshit for the state to say they’ll only import green energy.
And that cool HVDC transmission line that is planned to import electricity when needed? Well it can also be used to export not just excess power, but to pay more and get power we need in this state. After all, the owners of the power generators, including Wind and Solar - they’ll sell to the highest bidder.
What’s a Sensible Plan
If you want reliable energy, at a reasonable price, and to reduce CO2 sensibly6, I suggest the following. This is fundamentally N2N (Natural gas to Nuclear).
Forget Wind. If someone builds a Wind Farm and transmission lines without state help that’s fine. Buy the energy. But no more efforts there.
Forget batteries except for the duck curve until their energy density increases substantially.
For all intermittent resources (Wind & Solar) have adequate backup7 with SCGT backups. Do not assume we can get power from neighboring states.
Short term replace our coal plants with CCGT.
Get started building multi-giga watt nuclear now8. Use either the Vogtle design, the Korean design, or the French design. I think the best approach could be to hire the firms building the Korean reactors and do the same here.
The base load should be 100% Hydro + Nuclear.
Figure out what makes sense for peak load when we’re all electric (cars, heat, stoves, etc.) and build toward that.
Limit solar + batteries to what makes sense under this plan.
Encouraging all new construction to be all electric is fine. But hold off retrofitting existing until we have the nuclear plants running. Changing hot water from gas to electric when the electric is generated by gas - not a big win.
If other states on the grid continue with fantasyland approaches, figure out how to stop them pulling inordinate amounts of our power spiking the price for electricity. We don’t want to be the backup for California’s stupidity.
Just as other states won’t want to be the backup for our stupidity if we implement the existing Colorado 2040 plan.
Keep an eye on Geothermal and SMRs.
Providing this state with reliable electricity at a reasonable price is not hard. Reducing our CO2 as we convert to gas and then more so as we convert to nuclear is a reasonable approach.
But we need to stop with the fantasy approaches that in many cases are ineffectual greenwashing. All that does is raise electricity prices, reduce reliability, and has no effect on CO2. And this fantasyland approach will cost 2 - 3 times as much and lead to a ton of unnecessary mining, manufacturing, and shipping of machinery that are dependent on rare earth metals, many of which come from China.
Because that’s a high price to pay to pretend we’re green.
State of Colorado Reports
Quick Primer - Electricity 101
Power regions, with a couple of exceptions, do not match state borders. The PSCo graph is the old Public Service Co region - so figure 80% - 90% of Colorado usage.
Quick Primer - Load Balancing the Grid
Everyone wants Green Energy, transmission lines, etc. But they want it in your backyard not their backyard.
Of the 7 plans this ranges from 0 to 1.5GW. Assuming the plan is correct (it isn’t).
Step 1 is build a nuclear plant next to each coal plant. When it’s running, move the transmission lines across from the coal to the nuclear plant.
Number 8 is brilliant. And limit land use delays that would slow down the construction.
Excellent article. Thank you for this clear and direct analysis.