It's Time for Europe to Become an Adult
And take on the responsibility for their own defense
A loss in Ukraine means that Russia will next conqueror Moldova. Easy pickings with Ukraine gone. And then with Russia on NATO’s border - the Baltic countries. There is no way to stop that from happening other than stopping Russia in Ukraine.
At the same time, even if Biden had won re-election, the U.S. cannot be the primary force opposing Russia and China and Iran. Europe needs to take on the responsibility of supporting Ukraine to enable them to at least stop, and preferably defeat, Russia.
And yet, even with the last several years of war, Europe is still not serious about taking on this responsibility. They are leaving leadership and primary support to the U.S. This is shown first in their budgets.
They are in a war with Russia. Their GDP for the military needs to be 4% - 5%. Poland understands. The Baltic states sort-of understand (they say they do but their spending doesn’t match their words). Germany, UK, & France, which must take the lead on this - don’t.
In addition their other actions show their complete unseriousness about the threats facing them. Brexit in the UK, closing their nuclear plants in Germany, the list goes on. These are political actions you can take when the world is peaceful, the economy is strong, and you have the flexibility to do fundamentally stupid things. These are not the actions of a country focused on defending itself from Russia.
With Trump elected the U.S. will almost certainly be withdrawing from the Ukraine war. The fact that Europe is not ready to take over - that’s on them. And while I wish the U.S. did stay involved supporting Ukraine, there is a fair argument that we gave Europe the breathing room to build up their military. And Europe, aside from Poland and a few others, decided not to do so. So it’s tough love time.
And yes, this could turn out bad for the U.S. Either having to step in when the Baltics are attacked as required by NATO. Or worse, waiting until Germany is invaded by Russia. At that time we’ll have to commit troops to the battle.
I hope when Trump withdraws U.S. support, Europe gets serious. Unfortunately, I think Germany, who should be the leader for this, is presently the sick man of Europe. And I don’t see much better from France. Even the UK is not at the seriousness and spending this requires.
When history writes of this next year in Europe, it will be a story of if Europe stepped up to defend itself. Or if they choose to follow the Neville Chamberlain approach.
I think Ukraine has already won this war.
Ukraine wins by not losing. There is no conceivable scenario wherein Russia takes over all of Ukraine. Moldova and the Baltics? Nope.
Currently the Russian ruble is worth < $0.01. Nobody trades with Russia unless they pay in gold - the Chinese and Iranians and North Koreans are not "friends". Russia has lost around 800,000 troops, both killed and injured. 9,000 tanks. 20,000 APVs, 20,000 artillery systems. 331 helicopters. 369 airplanes. Etc. To give you any idea how staggering this is, Russia has the ability to build maybe 250 tanks per year. In three years, they have lost 36 years production. The United States has, total, 5,500 tanks. Russia has lost double the total number of tanks the U.S. maintains.
About a million Russians have left Russia. They are heavily weighted toward young men with marketable skills. because of that Russia is falling apart. The Russian oil industry is disintegrating - it is tricky pulling oil out of Siberia, and everyone that knows how to do the O&M has left the country. The railway system is disintegrating - Russia can't make new ball bearings, not do they have the ability to service the ball bearings for the rail cars.
Six months. If Ukraine can keep up the pressure six more months Russia will not only withdraw, but they may also disintegrate. Ukraine is planning on building 4 million drones, in house, this year. they are 80% effective. The math all favors Ukraine.
Seriously - Europe - scrape up some money and BUY weapons for Ukraine from Trump. Call it a contribution toward NATO. Trump will happily sell them whatever they want. And again, you only need to do this over the short term. Russia won't last six more months. The horrible war is almost over. It will not last past this year.
Moving European military budgets to 4-5% of GDP, given what I know about your expertise, seems like a bit of a WAG. Any professional in a field linked to military strategy supporting such a move?
According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (2024), military by GDP in the most recent year reported: Ukraine spent 33.5%. Israel spent 4.5%. Russia spent 4.1%. The United States spent 3.4%.
European nations likely have a fairly good idea of what is possible for themselves. Shifting government spending from where they were to 2% of GDP they pledged in response to Russia occupying Crimea and Eastern Ukraine in 2014 has been a lift. Doubling (and more) to reach military spending at 4% of GDP to answer what appears to be a military stalemate is politically unlikely. Imagine the response in the United States if the budget proposal moved from 3.4% (about $840B) to 4.0% ($990B), an increase over 17.5%. Germany is now in the middle of a snap election. What would happen to a proposal from a party to take military spending from about 1.6% of GDP to 4.0% of GDP? Government spending share of 3.1% to nearly 8%?
I have no idea what Russia would do in response to a military buildup of the size you are proposing. But consider that if German military spending reached 4% of GDP, it would be outspending Russia by nearly $40B annually.
European nations spending more to support Ukraine and stop Russia is likely a necessity as the United States moves into the Trump 2.uhoh regime. What "more" is needed and can be delivered deserves more careful development.