Breaking out the Odds in the Remaining Districts

Diving deeper into - can the Democrats hold on to the House?

From my previous blog article, here are the remaining races and how I see each ending.

Update - It’s Over

The Republican was just announced as the winner in AZ-01. I think that kills any Democratic chances at the majority. I’m going to stop updating this page so it remains a snapshot of the last second before it became clear we Dems were not going to get the House.

What is a Majority?

I read someone raising a very good point - the House never has 435 members. It tends to have 2 - 5 open seats due to deaths & resignations. If the Republicans win the house say 219/216, then 3 Republican deaths/resignations, which is very possible, would mean a tie.

We might find the speakership changing part way through this session - either direction.

Seats

Democrats: 206

Republicans: 214

Majority: 218

The California ones are easy due to their jungle primary. Looking at the districts that are mostly counted, each candidate grabbed almost all of the votes from the candidates in their own party that did not make the top 2. The rest generally have enough votes are in and the spread is wide enough, it’s almost certain to hold.

Democrats need to win all 5 of the competitive races to get to 218 & control of the House. It does not look good in any of them. However, there are several races in California where the general result is several percent different from the jungle primary.

AZ-06 is running out of room, but it could move 1% in that final 13% to be counted if those votes are from the more urban/educated part of the district.

The Washington Post predicts the Democrat will win 4 of those 6 competitive seats. Interesting also that the WashPo also sees the Democratic candidate still having a chance in 2 of the Republican Win seats below.

If you were betting money you would bet every one of the competitive districts to go Republican. But you wouldn’t bet a lot on any of them because each of them could flip. The vote has come out more Democratic than expected in a number of districts (especially CO-03).

So it’s not over until they’ve counted the last bloody ballot.

Democratic Win (Dem/Repub : % counted)

• AK - 47.3%/26.6% : IRV. Previous special election predicts 51.5%/48.5%

• CA-09 - 56.3%/43.7% : 36%. Jungle primary predicts 51.4%/48.6%

• CA-21 - 54.6%/45.4% : 49%. Jungle primary predicts 56.9%/43.1%

• CA-47 - 51.2%/48.8% : 67%. Jungle primary predicts 51.7% / 48.3%

  • 51.3%/48.7% : 72%. Lead holding steady.

• CA-49 - 52.1%/47.9% : 69%. Jungle primary predicts 51.4% / 48.6%

  • 52.6%/47.4% : 80%. Holding steady to a Dem win.

• CO-08 - Democrat declared winner (4 days after Republican conceded).

• ME-02 - 49.2%/43.9% : 88%. A 5.3% spread with 88% counted - this is won.

• NM-02 - Yvette Herrell, the Republican candidate in this race, has conceded.

• OR-06 - 49.7%/48.0% : 80%. A 1.7% spread with 80% counted - this is won.

• WA-03 - Democrat declared winner.

Competitive (need 4)

• AZ-06 - 49.5%/50.5% : 87%. Republican leaning district, outer edges of Scottsdale. WashPo says Repub slightly favored to win.

  • 49.8%/50.2% : 91%. If this trend continues, Dem win.

  • 49.7%/50.3% : 93%. This is going to come down to the last vote.

• CA-13 - 49.9%/50.1% : 48%. Jungle primary predicts 48.2%/51.8%. WashPo says Dem slightly favored to win.

• CA-22 - 47.5%/52.5% : 39%. Jungle primary predicts 45.4% / 54.6%. WashPo says Dem slightly favored to win.

• CA-27 - 44.0%/56.0% : 50%. Jungle primary predicts 49.7%/50.4%. WashPo says Dem slightly favored to win.

  • 44.6%/55.4% : 53%. If this trend continues, Dem wins.

• CA-41 - 49.4%/50.6% : 47%. Jungle primary predicts 46.6% / 53.4%. WashPo says Repub slightly favored to win.

  • 48.7%/51.3% : 59%.

Republican Win (Dem/Repub : % counted)

• AZ-01 - Republican declared winner

• CA-03 - 47.0%/53.0% : 51%. Jungle primary predicts 44.2%/55.8%.

• CA-45 - 46.0%/54.0% : 60%. Jungle primary predicts 43.1%/56.9%. WashPo says Repub slightly favored to win but Dem still has a chance.

• CO-03 - 49.8%/50.2% : 99%. All that’s left is overseas ballots & curing.

• NY-22 - Republican declared winner.

• OR-05 - Republican declared winner.

Let me know what you think in the comments.